Rainy Weather Expected in Bowling Green

Real-Time Bowling Green Weather Radar:

 Today 12/4 – Cloudy; Sct’d Showers – High 47º / Tonight – Mostly Cloudy; Iso’d Showers – Low 46º

6am 35º – 9am 39º – 12pm 44º – 3pm 47º – 6pm 47º

We are currently seeing extensive cloud cover and a few rain showers across the area this morning. Temperatures are running 2-3º above freezing and locations just north of southern Kentucky have seen some sleet mixing in with the rain.

This precipitation is in response to a weak upper-level trough pulling moisture from the Gulf of Mexico over our cooler air mass. The latest run of the NAM model illustrates higher theta-e values (indicative of moisture) expected to nose into the Tennessee Valley  this afternoon.

rainy weather
00Z NAM 850mb Theta-E valid at 3pm CST today (Courtesy: College of Dupage)

As a result, expect scattered showers throughout the day under cloudy skies. Rainfall totals around .25″ are expected. Temperatures will rise into the middle to upper 40s by this afternoon. Most of the precipitation should move off to the northeast. Warm air advection ahead of another disturbance building to our west will cause temperatures to remain in the middle to upper 40s overnight.

Fri – Cloudy; Showers Likely – High 64º / Fri Night – Mostly Cloudy; Rain Likely – Low 52º

A stronger trough to our west will help to spin up an area of surface low pressure near the Texas panhandle by daybreak tomorrow. This weak low will slide northeast throughout the day and move just north of here overnight.

A warm front stretched ahead of this low will help to keep pushing warmer air and moisture into our area tomorrow. Temperatures are expected to reach the middle 60s by Friday afternoon. It will be tough to enjoy these warmer temperatures as scattered showers and extensive cloud cover will persist throughout the day.

Pro tip: Never turn down an offer to share an umbrella in rainy weather.

rainy weather
h/t giphy.com

Low pressure is expected slide northeast over Kentucky Friday night. Rainfall coverage will ramp up in response to our proximity to the low and a nocturnal low-level jet. The low-level jet will send  unseasonably high precipitable water values into the Tennessee Valley.

rainy weather
00Z GFS precipitable water values valid at 9pm CST Friday (Courtesy: College of Dupage)

With this much moisture in the atmosphere, rainfall could be heavy at time. Rainfall totals could reach 1″ across southern Kentucky on Friday night.

Sat – Mostly Cloudy; Showers Early – High 53º / Sat Night – Partly Cloudy; Cooler – Low 38°

Surface low pressure will move off to the northeast and an associated cold front will push across our area on Saturday morning. Showers should diminish by noon as surface winds turn to the north.

By the time the precipitation is all said and done, the WPC indicates that southern Kentucky has the potential to see rainfall totals around 1.5″ between now and Saturday evening.

rainy weather
QPF valid from 6pm Wednesday until 6pm Saturday (Courtesy: WPC)

Surface high pressure will quickly build over the Great Lakes on Saturday and help push this system to our east quickly. Skies will gradually clear throughout the day and become partly cloudy by Saturday night. Temperatures will be cooler behind the cold front with highs in the lower 50s and lows in the upper 30s.

That’s all I’ve got for this morning, be sure to check out @WxOrNotBG and @WarrenCountyWX on Twitter for real-time weather updates.