Sunday Morning Weather Update

Real-Time Bowling Green Weather Radar:

Today 10/12 – Thunderstorms Likely – High 77º / Sun Night – Thunderstorms Likely – Low 62º

6am 53º – 9am 60º – 12pm 69º – 3pm 76º – 6pm 73º

Good morning, if you are looking for a break from all of this rain we have seen during the past week, unfortunately it’s going to be a few more days with showers and thunderstorms expected. We are currently seeing temperatures in the lower 50s this morning with abundant cloud cover around the region.

A few showers can be found across the state this morning, mainly to our north and east. Isolated showers will continue to impact our area this morning until a warm front brings an increase in rain chances this afternoon. As this warm front lifts north across the state, expect winds to turn to the south and usher in high temperatures in the middle to upper 70s.

Storms will fire along the warm front this afternoon and move northeast. While widespread severe weather is not expected, parameters support the idea of a few strong to severe storms later today. Any storms that become severe could produce damaging winds, large hail, and even an isolated tornado. The latest Day 1 Outlook gives southern Kentucky a 2% chance of seeing a tornado within 25 miles of a given point.

Screenshot 2014-10-12 05.37.16
Day 1 Tornado Outlook (Courtesy: SPC)

The threat for severe weather looks to diminish somewhat after sunset, but rainfall chances actually look to increase. A low-level jet stream will push plentiful moisture into our region overnight and this will help to feed showers and thunderstorms around the area. Rainfall totals for today and tonight look to be around 1″.

Monday – Scattered Showers & Thunderstorms, Windy – High 83º / Mon Night – Thunderstorms Likely – Low 63º

Our weather will become very active as we head into Monday as an upper-level trough over the central U.S. will slide east tomorrow and Tuesday. In association with this trough, we will see an area of surface low pressure will move northeast from Texas to Missouri.

We will be in the warm sector of this area of low pressure tomorrow meaning temperatures and dew points will be on the rise. Temperatures will rise into the lower 80s with the help of southerly winds at the surface. This area of low pressure has a pretty tight pressure gradient, so wind speeds will be 10-20mph with some higher gusts possible.

We will only see some scattered showers and thunderstorms tomorrow with mostly cloudy skies otherwise. Overnight, a surface cold front will begin to move east towards our area and a line of strong to severe storms looks to form along this cold front.

This line of storms looks to impact southern Kentucky very late tomorrow night into early Tuesday morning. The nocturnal timing of these storms will really limit our instability, but our proximity the surface low will provide wind shear and helicity values conducive for severe weather. In the SPC’s Day 2 Outlook, our area continues to be outlined in a slight risk for severe weather tomorrow:

Screenshot 2014-10-12 05.54.39
Day 2 Outlook (Courtesy: SPC)

Tuesday – Rain Likely – High 67º / Mon Night – Mostly Cloudy, Sct’d Showers – Low 54º

Heavy rain looks likely during the morning hours on Tuesday, as a large area of precipitation will move in behind the initial line of strong thunderstorms. This precipitation will push east by mid-morning but the cold front actually looks to stall out just to our west. This will result in continuing cloud cover and some shower chances on Tuesday and Tuesday night.

Temperatures look to only reach the upper 60s on Tuesday, but the big story will continue to be the precipitation. Check out predicted rainfall totals over the next three days, we could be looking at nearly 3″ of total rainfall by Wednesday morning.

Day 1-3 QPF valid from 7am today until 7am Wednesday (Courtesy: WPC)

That’s all I’ve got for this morning. Be sure to stay weather aware over the next few days and follow @WxOrNotBG and @WarrenCountyWX on Twitter for real-time weather updates.