Thursday Morning Weather Update

Real-Time Bowling Green Weather Radar:

Today 10/1 – Increasing Clouds; Warm – High 90º / Thu Night – Cloudy; Thunderstorms Likely – Low 66º

6am 56º – 9am 74º – 12pm 84º – 3pm 89º – 6pm 82º

Good morning, temperatures are currently in the middle to upper 50s in Warren and Butler counties. These cool temperatures will be fast to rise today as southerly winds pump heat and moisture into our area. A strong cold front is expected to pass over us tomorrow morning, but we will begin to see rain chances increase ahead of the front by tonight.

Warm air advection ahead of the cold front will actually give our high temperature a chance to reach 90º today. Skies will be partly cloudy throughout most of the day, but we could see some increases in cloud cover by this evening. Any showers and thunderstorms look to hold off until after sunset.

Scattered thunderstorms are possible tonight, with the bulk of the precipitation occurring after midnight. Luckily, the late night timing of these storms will diminish our threat for severe weather. Instability looks to be low overnight, but there will be enough wind shear along the cold front to create a few stronger thunderstorms. While widespread severe weather is not expected for our area, an isolated strong to severe storm could produce some damaging winds and even an isolated tornado overnight.

The SPC has placed Butler and Warren counties under a 5% risk of seeing damaging winds within 25 miles of a given point tonight. Notice how the best chances for severe weather stay off to our west.

Screenshot 2014-10-02 05.58.08
Day 1 Wind Outlook valid until 7am Friday (Courtesy: SPC)

Precipitable water values are expected to be in excess of 1.5″ overnight which will lead to some heavy downpours with these storms. In addition to heavy rain, expect frequent lightning associated with these storms as well.

Fri – Cloudy; Showers & Thunderstorms Likely – High 75º / Fri Night – Partly Cloudy; Iso’d Thunderstorms Early– Low 42º

If you are looking for decent weather to end the work week, that’s not happening. Strong low pressure will plow northeast through the Great Lakes region tomorrow and the associated cold front will pass over southern Kentucky by noon tomorrow. This means our rain chances will continue throughout most of the day tomorrow, with shower and thunderstorm activity decreasing during the afternoon. Temperatures will reach 75º early in the day tomorrow, before much colder air settles in behind the front.

By tomorrow evening winds will turn to the west and push all of this cloud cover and precipitation out of our area. When it is all said and done, rainfall totals for tonight and tomorrow look to be 0.5-1″. Check out this map from the WPC showing rainfall totals through 7am Saturday.

WPC Days 1-2 QPF valid from 7am today through 7am Saturday (Courtesy: WPC)

Skies will become partly cloudy late tomorrow night and temperatures will drop into the lower 40s as we start to get our first real taste of some cooler weather.

Sat – Mostly Sunny; Breezy – High 61º / Fri Night – Mostly Clear; Chilly – Low 39º

An upper-level trough will settle over the eastern U.S. behind the cold front and help to reinforce the cooler temperatures. It will be downright chilly on Saturday as high temperatures look to only reach around 60º. Westerly winds of 10-15mph during the day will only make it feel even cooler. Talk about a slap in the face from fall.


Temperatures will drop into the upper 30s Saturday night under partly cloudy skies. If you are a fan of the cooler weather, the good news is that cooler temperatures look to stick around until early next week.

That’s all I’ve got for this morning. Be sure to check out @WarrenCountyWX and @WxOrNotBG on Twitter for real-time weather updates.