Monday Afternoon Update

Real Time Regional Radar:

This Afternoon – Partly Cloudy – High 93° / Tonight – Isolated Thunderstorms, A Few Severe – Low 72°

Good afternoon, we have quite a bit to talk about today with a chance for severe weather tonight and tomorrow. Hopefully you enjoyed the cooler air this weekend as winds out of the SSW are bringing in much warmer air in addition to more moisture.  Currently, temperatures are making a run into the lower 90s…welcome back heat and humidity.

There is a weak frontal boundary currently draped across Missouri,Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio this afternoon that is acting as a focal point for convection to fire along. Storms have popped up along a line from St. Louis, Missouri to Dayton, Ohio. These storms will bear watching as they drift southeast into Kentucky later today.

Current radar valid at 330 pm CST.
Current radar valid at 330 pm CST.

We should stay dry this afternoon, although we cannot rule out a stray thunderstorm. As this line of storms to our northwest approaches the area later this evening they should weaken some as they head into an environment lacking wind shear, but we could see some severe storms.

The SPC has placed us on the edge of a slight (enhanced) risk for severe storms this evening.

Day 1 Convective Outlook (Courtesy: SPC)

We have a 15% chance of seeing damaging winds within 25 miles of a given point, with a 30% chance close to our northwest.

Day 1 Wind Outlook (Courtesy: SPC)
Day 1 Wind Outlook (Courtesy: SPC)

If we do see this line of thunderstorms make it into the area, the biggest threat would be damaging winds and hail with a brief, isolated tornado possible. Heavy rainfall and lightning would also accompany these storms.

The outflow boundaries from this line of thunderstorms could spark some isolated storms in our area closer to day break as well. Outside of any storms, expect mostly cloudy skies tonight with lows in the lower 70s.

Tuesday 7/8 – Mostly Cloudy, Scattered Strong/Severe Storms – High 89° / Tue Night – Scattered T-storms, A few severe – Low 71°

Tomorrow, the cold front to our north will push south and usher in much more widespread thunderstorms. Some of these thunderstorms have the potential to be severe and the SPC has placed all of Kentucky in an upper level slight risk for severe storms tomorrow.

Day 2 Convective Outlook (Courtesy: SPC)
Day 2 Convective Outlook (Courtesy: SPC)

We have a 30% chance of seeing severe weather within 25 miles of a given point.

Day 2 Convective Outlook (Courtesy: SPC)
Day 2 Convective Outlook (Courtesy: SPC)

It looks like we will see some isolated showers and storms hanging around tomorrow morning before things clear out by mid-morning. The big question will be how quickly any cloud cover in the morning can burn off. If we see clouds, expect lower instability and less intense storms, but if we see cloud cover dissipate quickly tomorrow there will be lots of instability around for storms to work with.

The best chance for strong to severe storms looks to be tomorrow afternoon . After things clear out, the cold front moving down from the north will allow storms to fire along the boundary, congeal into a line and push south. It looks like we should see the cap break as storms move in from the north which will allow them to develop in an unstable environment.

One thing we have not seen all summer is good wind shear for storms to work with. Tomorrow, that is not the case as good low-level shear will be in place for storms to work with.

This means that we could see a wide variety of threats tomorrow. Damaging winds and large hail look to be concerns with these storms and the tornado threat (while low) is present. Also, precipitable water values will be high meaning these storms can produce torrential rainfall. Lots of lightning will be possible with these storms as well.

Here is a map from the WPC showing predicted precipitation amounts from now until 7 am Wednesday. 0.5″-1″ of rainfall looks possible tomorrow and with locally higher amounts probable.

Day 1-2 QPF valid from today until 7am Wednesday. (Courtesy: WPC)
Day 1-2 QPF valid from today until 7am Wednesday. (Courtesy: WPC)

By tomorrow night, the main line of storms will continue to push south of us and our severe threat will diminish although we will see the continued chance for some scattered showers and non-severe thunderstorms overnight.

Wednesday 7/9 – AM Showers, Clearing Skies – High 85° / Wed Night – Partly Cloudy, Cooler – Low 64°

Wednesday will be a transition day for us. The cold front will be positioned just south of the area and could cause some isolated showers during the first part of the day on Wednesday. By Wednesday afternoon, the front will continue pushing south and skies will clear behind it as an area of high pressure moves in.

Behind the front, we will be in a cooler and drier air mass and highs will only reach into the middle 80s. Wednesday night will be cooler with lows in the lower to middle 60s.

That’s all I’ve got for this afternoon. With busy weather over the next two days, keep up @WxOrNotBG and @WarrenCountyWX on Twitter for real-time weather updates. Have a great afternoon.