Severe Thunderstorms Expected

Real-time Observation for Bowling Green, Ky:

Find more about Weather in Bowling Green, KY

Real-time Regional Radars:

Today – Partly Sunny, PM Scat’d Storms – High 82˚ / Tonight – Scat’d Showers & Storms – Low 65˚

9am 66˚ – 12pm 77˚ – 3pm 82˚ – 6pm 76˚ – 9pm 70˚

After a few fantastic warm spring days, dramatic changes lie just ahead. Nope, we’re not talking major cold and snow this time (for once), but unfortunately, change will come in the form of potentially severe thunderstorms and heavy rain.

Holding that thought, today will start off quite nice as generally sunny skies prevail and temperatures quickly warm into the 70s and eventually the low 80s. Clouds will begin to increase around noon, however, as a warm frontal boundary approaches from the south.

Surface analysis valid for 1pm Sunday courtesy of the WPC

By the afternoon, scattered thunderstorms will likely align from northwest to southeast across the region and push northeastward along with the warm frontal boundary. Note that some of these storms could be strong to severe with gusty winds and hail being possible.

The hail threat will primarily be before 6pm when energy for storms to grow is at its greatest. Areas of isolated to scattered activity will continue to move through this evening. Overnight, areas of scattered showers and storms will move in from the west in association with clusters of storms from those that developed in AR/MO.

See this animation to get a better idea of how the storms may move through from this afternoon through Monday morning.

NAM Simulated Reflectivity valid from 1pm Sun – 9am Mon.

Any of these storms late tonight/early Monday morning could be strong with gusty winds and small hail possible along with heavy rain and lightning. However, the main severe threat will come Monday afternoon. With that said, the SPC does include areas just to our west in the “slight risk” area for this evening/overnight.

Latest SPC Severe Convective Outlook for today.

Mon – Scat’d Strong to Severe Storms – High 77˚ / Mon Night – Scat’d Strong to Severe Storms – Low 59˚

Again, scattered showers & storms will likely be in the area when you wake up Monday morning. However, these will be moving out of the area rather quickly. This will allow for a possible brief break in the action.

The next round of storms set to move in Monday afternoon, is the round I’m the most concerned about. Severe weather parameters continue to favor the idea of widespread severe weather.

The Storm Prediction Center has outlined all of south-central Kentucky in a “slight risk” for severe thunderstorms. Furthermore, they’ve specified our region in a 30% hashed probability of seeing severe weather within 25 miles of you.

The Storm Prediction Center’s convective outlook for Monday – Monday Night.
The Storm Prediction Center’s Probabilities of Severe Weather on Monday – Monday Night.

A line of storms is expected to develop across western TN/KY and push into our area. There could be scattered supercell storms to start across the mentioned region, before the storms congeal into a line as they move into our area. Any storms Monday afternoon could pose the risk of damaging winds, severe hail and isolated tornadoes.

Have a plan in place NOW so that you know what to do in case severe weather does come together. This would include checking the batteries in your NOAA weather radio and planning a safe location to go in the event of a tornado warning.

Scattered thunderstorms will continue into the overnight hours before generally pushing east of our area by Tuesday morning.

Tue – Partly Cloudy, Scat’d Showers & Storms – High 78˚ / Tue Night – Partly Cloudy, Iso’d Showers & Storms – Low 49˚

Unfortunately, we can’t seem to shake the severe weather potential completely as strong to severe storms will again be possible Tuesday afternoon following a partly cloudy morning. There remain a lot more question marks with Tuesday’s potential than Monday’s. It looks like the setup may pose an increased threat of severe hail due to cold temperatures aloft.

Overall, the Storm Prediction Center has actually removed our area from the “slight risk” of severe thunderstorms for Tuesday. But I believe a few strong to severe storms still cannot be ruled out. We’ll continue to monitor this potential and provide updates.

The Storm Prediction Center’s Convective Outlook for Tuesday.

By Tuesday night, the weather will finally take a breather, and so can we. However, an upper-level disturbance will hang around the area through mid-week. As a result, a few isolated showers and storms along with areas of clouds could hang around for a few days.

It is also worth noting that with the multiple rounds of thunderstorms, the associated heavy rainfall could lead to areas of flash flooding. By Wednesday morning, 2-4+” rainfall totals are expected in our region. In other words, no need to water your lawn today.

Expected Rainfall Through Wednesday Morning.

That’s all for now, but be sure to come back for updates on the severe weather threat as we draw closer. Also, you can always get the latest whenever you need it via real-time updates on twitter from @WxOrNotBG and @WarrenCountyWx. Have a great Sunday all and thanks for reading.