Roller Coaster Weekend


Another fun ride this weekend…

Today – Partly Cloudy, Iso’d Showers, BREEZY – High 64˚ / Tonight – Rain Likely – Low 37˚

9am 51˚ ~ 12pm 59˚ ~ 3pm 64˚ ~ 6pm 56˚ ~ 9pm 51˚

A mix of sun and clouds will coincide with southerly breezes of 15-25mph today to take high temperatures into the low – mid 60s.  A few light, isolated showers will be possible.  I expect us to remain dry, however, it’s worth mentioning.

A warm front will organize and locate itself to our north as the day progresses, placing all of south central Kentucky in the warm sector.  This will dampen up our atmosphere as the day progresses.  Here’s a look at the current surface setup:

Surface Model Valid 8am 2/1/14
Surface Model Valid 8am 2/1/14

As we get into tonight, a surface low will track northeast from the southern plains across the Great Lakes (see above image), dragging an associated cold front west to east across the region.  Deep moisture will combine with the forcing from this boundary to create widespread rain showers.

Sun – Scat’d Showers – High 43˚ / Sun Night – Scat’d Rain & Snow Showers – Low 26˚

Scattered rain showers will stick around through the start of our Sunday, with temperatures plummeting through the afternoon and evening.  Total rainfall amounts from this first slug of moisture (Sat night – Sun) are expected to range between .10-.75″.

Sunday night is when the fun will start.  A potent shortwave disturbance will track across the region, as a surface low to our south propagates east toward the Carolinas.  As this occurs, Canadian high pressure will send northwesterly winds into the area, which in turn will continue to decrease our temperatures.

What could start as all rain is expected to transition to a rain/snow mix, then all snow as we get later into the night.  The GFS precip type loop below gives you a better idea of how this system may evolve.  It is valid from 6am Sun – 6am Mon:

GFS Precip Type Valid 6am Sun - 6am Mon
GFS Precip Type Valid 6am Sun – 6am Mon

As far as accumulations are concerned, this will be a tough call.  As I mentioned yesterday, amounts should remain minor.  I think we can expect anywhere from a spotty dusting – 2″, with the potential for 3″ not out of the question.

The big factor our atmosphere will be fighting is dry air in the lower levels.  How much snow we get will be determined by how quickly the lower levels can saturate.  Regardless, travel is expected to be impacted, so be sure to use caution traveling Sunday night – Monday morning.

Mon – Gradual Clearing – High 39˚ / Mon Night – Increasing Clouds – Low 28˚

Lingering showers should taper off early on Monday, with partly sunny skies possible by the afternoon.  High temps will be suppressed to the mid – upper 30s.

On Monday night, cloud coverage will begin to increase ahead of our next weather maker, which could end up being quite a mess, providing numerous precipitation types.  I’m still waiting to dive into any details with this weather producer, as its still located well west of the west coast.  As for now, focus will remain on Sunday night’s event.

That’s going to be all for now.  As always, stay connected to @WarrenCountyWx and @Wx_Or_Not for more frequent weather information.  Everyone strap yourselves in…it’s gonna be another wild ride on the weather roller coaster this weekend.