Friday Afternoon Update

This Afternoon – Mostly Cloudy – High 48˚ / Tonight – Iso’d Showers – Low 41˚

3pm 48˚ ~ 6pm 44˚ ~ 9pm 42˚ ~ 12am 41˚ ~ 3am 41˚ ~ 6am 41˚

Our weather conditions will remain cloudy and quiet this afternoon, with dry air looking to cancel out any chance at isolated showers.  Overnight, we may see a few rain showers develop, however, they will be sparse to come by.  The majority of us should remain dry.

Sat – Cloudy, Iso’d Showers – High 65˚ / Sat Night – Rain Likely – Low 35˚

A cold front will approach from our west throughout our Saturday, with thick cloud cover and isolated showers remaining in the forecast.  We’ll be slated for a major warmup, as southerly winds of 15-25+mph pester the region.  65˚ may be a long shot, but I’m feeling it.  Don’t get too nestled in with the warm temperatures, they’ll be coming to an abrupt end not long after they arrive.

As we get into Saturday night, this surface boundary (cold front) will cut a path eastward across the Bluegrass.  A line of light to moderate rain showers looks to organize ahead of this feature, supplementing widespread rain over the much of the state.  Rainfall values are forecast to range between .10-.40″.  Localized areas may see more.  The NAM simulated radar model below is valid from 6pm Sat – 6am Sun in 3-hour increments

NAM Simulated Radar 6pm Sat - 6am Sun
NAM Simulated Radar 6pm Sat – 6am Sun

Sun – Scat’d Rain & Snow Showers – High 39˚ / Sun Night – Scat’d Snow Showers – Low 24˚

With cold air pouring in from the west behind the cold front, a mix of rain & snow will be possible across the area during the early morning hours of our Sunday.  It doesn’t look like we’ll be receiving much of anything regarding accumulations.

That all may change as we get into Sunday night.  Temperatures values will plummet into the lower 20s, while a nice shortwave disturbance works across our proximity.  Scattered snow showers will likely join this feature, which could lead to minor accumulations.  The GFS precip model below is valid for 12am Monday, and thinks snow will be present over south central Kentucky:

GFS Precip Model Valid 12am Mon
GFS Precip Model Valid 12am Mon

We’re still a few days out from this weather maker, so things could change.  Keep your eyes peeled after the Super Bowl.  We’ll continue to monitor this weather producer and update the blog as needed.

Regarding next Tues-Wed, model guidance still can’t find an agreement.  One run paints a heavy amount of wintry mix impacting the region, while the next paints a heavy rain event.  I won’t be diving any deeper into this potential weather event until the models come up with a better solution.  Lets keep our fingers crossed that happens later this weekend.  And for those who are forecasting 10-12″ of snow for this time frame….


That’ll wrap up the updates for the work week, folks.  As always, more frequent updates will be provided @Wx_Or_Not & @WarrenCountyWx.  Enjoy your weekend, and thanks for reading.