Friday Afternoon Update

This Afternoon – Partly Sunny, Iso’d Storms – High 83 / Tonight – Partly Cloudy – Low 67

4pm 83 ~ 7pm 79 ~ 10pm 73 ~ 1am 71

Pattern should remain partly sunny & nice this afternoon and evening, with the exception of isolated storms.  No severe weather is expected.  Through the early part of the night, conditions should clear up, before showers and storms reenter the picture during the predawn hours of our Saturday.  Follow the activity with the radar provdied:



Sat – Partly Sunny, Scat’d Showers & Storms – High 80 / Sat Night – Showers & Storms Likely – Low 63

7am 69 ~ 10am 78 ~ 1pm 81 ~ 4pm 83

Upper level disturbances will be fed across our region ahead of an approaching cold front, firing off scattered showers and convection.  A few of these cells could become strong, producing heavy rain, strong winds and small hail.  One or two cells could even meet severe criteria, especially during the afternoon and evening.  The latest SPC outlook for tomorrow keeps our region in a 5% risk area for severe weather within 25 miles of any given location:



As the cold front begins to advance across the region on Saturday night, precipitation is expected to become more widespread.  Ample rainfall will be possible, especially if the upper trough bringing us this activity stalls out across our proximity.  The NAM HiRes simulated radar model provided is valid for 7pm Saturday evening, and pains a broken line of showers and storms rolling in from our west:



Sun – Showers & Storms Likely – High 66 / Sun Night – Iso’d Showers – Low 46′

7am 61 ~ 10am 65 ~ 1pm 68 ~ 4pm 66

The strong cold front will continue it eastward path across south central Kentucky, keeping showers and storms in the forecast.  Severe weather is not expected, and we should see activity diminish as we get into Sunday evening and night.  We could experience significant rainfall from this event.  The latest QPF model, seen below, is valid for rainfall amounts through Monday morning at 7am:



As you can see, this model suggests amounts of 3+” possible through this time.  Again, this all depends if the upper trough stalls out or not.  If it does, flooding could become a concern.  Another big change that will come along with the passing of the front will be a major alteration in our temperatures. As the front passes to our east, much cooler, drier air will infiltrate the area.  This will result in Sunday and Monday highs being limited to the mid 60s, with overnight lows falling into the 40s!  Yes, you read that correctly.
That will be all for the afternoon update, friends.  I’ll be back tomorrow with another update on our weather conditions.  Questions or comments?  Get in touch with me via Facebook or Twitter.  Enjoy your evening, and get ready for a dose of FALL to end the weekend on.  Thanks for reading!